The economics of equity research
股票研究經濟學
Analyse this
分析分析
The old model of stockmarket research is changing
股市研究的舊模式正在改變。
Sep 21st 2013 |From the print edition
EQUITY research is meant to benefit both providers and recipients. It ought to help investors to allocate money more profitably. And the banks that give their clients free access to research hope that it will help them generate revenues from equity trading. But neither party is much satisfied by the conventional model.
股票研究本應發行者和股東雙雙受益。應該幫助投資者更有利潤的分配資金。為客戶提供免費研究報告的銀行希望這會幫助客戶從股權交易中去的收益。但是雙方對常規的模式都不滿意。
Start with the banks. A fall in trading revenues makes the economics of providing research less attractive. Between 2009 and 2013, total equity-trading commissions paid to brokers fell from $13.9 billion to $9.3 billion in America, and from euros 4.2 billion ($5.6 billion) to euros 3 billion in Europe, according to Greenwich Associates, a consultancy. The rise of passive investing and the spread of algorithmic trading have both reduced margins and dampened demand for research produced by and for humans.
交易收入的下降使得經濟學研究逐漸喪失吸引力。這從銀行開始。根據咨詢機構Greenwich Associates的數據，在2009年到2013年之間，在美國總股本交易中支付給經紀人的傭金從139億美元跌到了93億美元，歐洲則從42億歐元跌到了30億歐元。被動投資的興起以及算法交易的擴張都使得研究資料的利潤率下降，需求也有所放緩。
Nomura recently slashed its equity-research division to focus on its electronic-trading business, Instinet. Other banks are also cutting back. Global sell-side research budgets fell from a 2007 peak of $8.2 billion to just $4.8 billion in 2013, according to Frost Consulting. Sector coverage has contracted: banks now concentrate on large-cap sectors like oil, where trading volumes and revenue potential are higher.
野村最近縮減了其股票研究部門，將注意力集中于電子交易公司Instinet。其他銀行也正在削減研究部門。根據弗羅斯特咨詢公司的數據，全球出售方的研究經費已經從2007年峰值的82億美元降到了2013年的48億美元。研究數據的行業覆蓋率葉縮減了，銀行現在集中在像原油等大宗商品行業，這些行業的交易量和收益潛力較高。
Work has been shovelled to cheaper places to save cash. Much of Citigroup’s American equity coverage is now produced in Buffalo, New York. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan have sent research work as far afield as India. Low-value-added tasks like data-crunching are not the only jobs being shipped out, claims Marc Vollenweider at Evalueserve, an outsourcing specialist. This process has its limits, however: client meetings still wholly happen face to face.
工作都轉移到了成本更低的地方以節省現金。花旗銀行的美國股票報道現在在紐約的布法羅發出。德意志銀行和JP摩根已經將研究工作轉移到了印度。專業外包公司Evalueserve的Marc Vollenweider表示，不僅僅是像數據運算這些低附加值的任務被轉移。但是，這個過程也有其局限性，客戶會議仍然全部為面對面會議。
The attitude of asset managers is also hardening. With research expenses “bundled” into commissions for executing trades, brokers tend to flood their clients with research reports in order to try to grab a larger slice of trading revenues. Asset managers leave most of them unread. A survey by Britain’s CFA Society found that only 22% of its members thought this model best serves the interests of investors.
資產管理公司的態度也在變硬。隨著研究經費“捆綁”到執行交易的傭金中，經紀人往往給他們客戶提供大量的研究報告，以此在交易收益中獲得更大的比例。資產管理公司的這些材料大都沒讀過。英國CFA協會進行的一項調查發現，只有22%的成員認為這種模式最符合投資者的利益。
Independent research outfits offer an alternative. Though small, their share of the “research vote”, an estimate of market share produced by Greenwich Associates, has grown since 2011. They are untainted by the conflicts of interest that bedevil banks offering research on clients, and that led to a 2003 settlement enforcing stricter separation of investment banking and research in America. In Europe “commission sharing agreements” have grown in popularity since they were introduced in 2003. These unbundle brokers’ commissions into costs for executing trades and costs for research, which clients can use to buy services from third parties.
獨立研究團隊是另一個選擇。盡管規模很小，但是據Greenwich Associates的市場份額數據，他們的“研究選擇”比例自2011年來有所增長。他們受到長期困擾銀行給客戶提供調查報告的利益沖突的影響，這導致了在2003年美國出臺了針對投資銀行和研究機構更嚴格的分離。在歐洲，“傭金分成協議”自從2003年引入以來，已經變得越來越流行。這些自由的經紀人的傭金用于執行交易和研究的花費，客戶可以用來從第三方購買服務。
Independent providers do not have an answer to every problem: making research on smaller firms profitable is a perennial issue. But they do offer radically different services from the banks’ unimaginative valuation models. Bespoke services are in demand. Hedge funds now use research dollars to pay for ground surveillance on the progress of mining or oil projects in Africa, in order to value them better. Others take to the sky. RS Metrics, a satellite-intelligence provider, has reported strong demand from the financial sector for its aerial-imaging services. Some funds even hire former intelligence agents, from firms like Business Intelligence Advisors, to test whether corporate bosses are massaging the truth in investor meetings.
獨立研究提供者不想回答所有問題：研究小公司獲利是一個長期的問題。但是，他們確實提供區別于銀行缺乏想象力的估值模型之外的完全不同的服務。定制服務是有需求的。現在，對沖基金運用研究資金支付非洲礦業或石油項目進展的地面監測，為了更好的對這些項目進行估值。其他采取空中監視。RS Metrics是一個衛星情報提供商，該公司表示金融公司對他們的空中成像服務需求強勁。一些基金甚至從類似商業情報顧問的公司雇傭了前情報人員考查公司老板們有沒有在投資者會議上說實話。
Old-style research is not about to die. Big banks retain 56.2% of the “research vote” (smaller brokers take another large chunk). Bank bosses still value the support research analysts can give their profitable investment-banking and corporate-advisory businesses. But with budgets under pressure and competition growing, the market is becoming more efficient.
舊式研究不會消失。大銀行的“研究選擇”比例仍然在56.2%(稍小的經紀人占了剩下的比例)。銀行老板仍人重視支持研究分析給自己投資銀行和咨詢公司業務帶來利潤。但是預算壓力以及競爭的增加使得市場變得更有效率。
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